Archive for December, 2009

Fannie and Freddie Losses Have No Limit

Monday, December 28th, 2009

From Peter Wallinson:

It’s a favorite government trick to announce bad news on a Friday afternoon, so it appears in Saturday’s paper, the least likely edition to be read. By Sunday and Monday, it’s old news. The Obama Treasury just went one better, announcing on Christmas Eve that they were uncapping the amount they believe will have to be invested in Fannie and Freddie. The Bush Treasury first estimated the government-sponsored enterprises’ (GSEs) losses at $100 billion each. The Obama administration, which has been using the GSEs to stabilize the housing market by reducing their underwriting standards, upped the ante to $200 billion each. Now the administration has thrown in the towel completely, and dropped a large lump of coal in each taxpayer’s stocking—it won’t even try to estimate the total losses of Fannie and Freddie.

The phrase “capitalism on the way up, socialism on the way down” comes to mind.

Bah Humbug: The Problem with Scroogenomics

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Joel Waldfogel, in his new book Scroogenomics: Why You Shouldn’t Buy Presents for the Holidays, argues that we should give up giving gifts at Christmas time because we inevitably waste money on gifts that others don’t want. From the publisher:

When we buy for ourselves, every dollar we spend produces at least a dollar in satisfaction, because we shop carefully and purchase items that are worth more than they cost. Gift giving is different. We make less-informed choices, max out on credit to buy gifts worth less than the money spent, and leave recipients less than satisfied, creating what Waldfogel calls “deadweight loss.”

I’ll admit that I haven’t read the book, so there may be more to Waldfogel’s argument in the book, but I have a few issues with the main thesis.

First, the actual economic transaction between the retailer and the gift-giver creates value. When we go to the store to purchase a gift, say for $20, we value giving that gift more than the $20 we use to purchase it. So, without taking into account how much the receiver values the gift, the transaction creates positive economic value.

More generally though, by focusing on gifts as a method of allocating resources, Waldfogel misses the point of giving gifts at Christmas. The Christmas gifts we give each other symbolize the gift humanity received from God. As Dan Ariely points out in Predictably Irrational, the symbolic exchange of gifts is a perfectly rational exchange, governed not by a market mechanism, but by social expectations. Indeed, under the assumption that individuals maximize value, no one would ever give away anything of value for free. Economists like to think of people as rational utility-maximizers, mostly to simplify mathematical models. That assumption doesn’t always hold.

However, Waldfogel does correctly discern that individuals can choose best what goods benefit them the most. His logic applies to government welfare programs that collect taxes in order to spend money on goods that people may or may not want.

Employment Falls Slightly, Economy Appears on Hold

Friday, December 4th, 2009

The U.S. economy lost 11,000 jobs in November, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The construction, manufacturing, and information industries lost about 85,000 jobs. Gains in the temporary service industry offset most of those losses. In other words, skilled, high-wage jobs continue to disappear, while unskilled, low-wage jobs grow.

The number of long-term unemployed people, those who have been out of work for at least 27 weeks, rose by 290,000. Of the unemployed, 38.3% have been out of work for longer than 27 weeks. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons essentially stayed the same, while the number of workers marginally attached to the labor force, those who have looked for a job in the past 12 months but not in the four weeks prior to the BLS survey, was 376,000 higher than this time last year.

The average workweek rose from 33 hours to 33.2 hours. A rise in the hourly work week precedes an increase in new hires, as employers assign more work to current employers before hiring new ones.

The BLS report is consistent with a economy where employers have put their hiring on hold. Temporary and part-time employment is up, but uncertainty about future legislation, including health care reform, cap and trade, and tax increases, prevents employers from making any long-term commitments. The coming recovery won’t last if the U.S. economy doesn’t employ its comparative advantage in the information industry.

A Better GOP Platform

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

James Bopp, Jr., the vice chairman of the Republican National Committee, has circulated a draft proposal of a ten point platform for the RNC to adopt in its January meeting. The resolution would require that candidates to support at least eight of the ten points before receiving RNC funding, which has prompted some media outlets to label it a “purity test.”

I don’t see the big deal about the resolution. All parties adopt a platform. They exist to advance an agenda, and they have to define an agenda and agree to it before they can advance it. Besides, it’s mostly Democrat strategists telling the Republicans that they need to have a “big tent” and that they must moderate (i.e. adopt Democrat talking points) or get permanently relegated to minority status. If that were really the case, why wouldn’t the Democrats welcome a GOP purity test?

Anyway, the 10 points are:

1. We support smaller government, smaller national debt, lower deficits and lower taxes by opposing bills like Obama’s “stimulus” bill;
2. We support market-based health care reform and oppose Obama-style government run healthcare;
3. We support market-based energy reforms by opposing cap and trade legislation;
4. We support workers’ right to secret ballot by opposing card check;
5. We support legal immigration and assimilation into American society by opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants;
6. We support victory in Iraq and Afghanistan by supporting military-recommended troop surges;
7. We support containment of Iran and North Korea, particularly effective action to eliminate their nuclear weapons threat;
8. We support retention of the Defense of Marriage Act;
9. We support protecting the lives of vulnerable persons by opposing health care rationing, denial of health care and government funding of abortion; and
10. We support the right to keep and bear arms by opposing government restrictions on gun ownership.

I wonder how many Republicans already disagree with three or more of these positions? They are defined broadly and simply stated. For instance, what does “victory” in Iraq and Afghanistan mean? Does it mean building functioning democratic states, or does it mean preventing al Qaeda from using the countries as operating bases? As AllahPundit notes at Hot Air, only points five and eight are seriously contested within the party.

Moreover, the list is not inspiring in any way. As much as it positively defines what the party should stand for, the list seems composed as a response to the current Democrat agenda. Republicans will not return to power unless they can get Obama out of their minds. The party needs candidates in 2010 and 2012 that can clearly articulate conservative thought. Simply stating positions won’t get the job done; they need someone who can put together an argument, educate the public, and explain why the party has its platform.

Nonetheless, here’s what I’d propose as the party platform that articulates those first principles that should motivate the next elections:

1. We respect human individual freedom and the ability of the individual to dispose of his reason with respect for the law.
2. We support abliity of individuals to acquire personal property through labor and the ability of individuals to freely exchange their property in markets.
3. Given that monopolies discourage opportunity and choice, we support limited regulation that keeps markets free, open, and competitive.
4. All Americans are equal before the law. However, individual Americans have a diverse array of talents, which are not all distributed equally. Our republic should allow individuals to use their talents to the best of their abilities.
5. No two American cities or states are alike. Where possible, local solutions at the city, county, and state level will provide better outcomes than a uniform solution imposed from the federal government.
6. We support public discourse that welcomes religious dialogue, but recognizes that Americans have many beliefs.
7. We support a national defense that protects the life and limb of every American and protects our international commercial interests.
8. We support government policies that recognize human nature as it is. We oppose government attempts to change human nature through social engeneering. People are not pawns in a social science experiment; they are not objects under the control of some social planner.
9. We support incremental reform of our political system — reform that preserves what is good and seeks to improve what can be improved. We oppose any attempt to completely remake our society in an untested and unseen manner. Reforms should fall in line with our Constitution and the intents of our Founders.

I’d Rather be Fishing: Why Subsidies Don’t Always Work

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

NPR reports that the island nation of Kiribati recently implemented a fishing subsidy that created unintended consequences. Kiribati has two major industries: fishing and coconut harvesting. Concerned about overfishing, the local government decided to subsidize coconut harvesting. They argued that by raising the incomes of coconut farmers, that some fisherman would give up fishing to start farming. In economic terms, the government increased the opportunity cost of fishing — the money a fisherman could have made by farming.

Unfortunately for the government, a subsidy affects the quantity of coconut harvesting in two ways. The government meant for the substitution effect, the increase in the cost of fishing, to discourage the island’s residents from fishing. Instead, the substitution effect was dominated by the income effect; coconut farmers could obtain the same level of utility with less work, allowing more time for leisure. And in their leisure time, the farmers went fishing. Rather than decreasing, the level of fishing increased 33%.

Whether the substitution effect or the income effect dominates depends on the preferences of the island’s residents. Since the farmers prefer leisure to work, they will consume more leisure with a subsidy. If they had preferred the extra income from work over additional leisure time, then the substitution effect would have dominated.

Congress should consider both effects when deciding whether or not to continue subsidizing unemployment, now two years after the start of the recession. If Congress wants people to get back to work, it might be better to stop writing checks for unemployment benefits.

(h/t Freakonomics)